Timm J. Esque
www.EsqueConsulting.com

Tom Gilbert said "Past performance is the only predictor of future performance".

To predict future project performance we need to look at past project performance. Unfortunately, most project performance falls short of defined goals. Original schedules and budgets are rarely achieved and quality is traded off as the pressure mounts. This is so commonplace that many experienced project participants don’t expect to meet their goals anymore, and they also don’t expect to really be held accountable to those goals.

I have found the PAC (Performance Against Commitment) Chart to be a simple tool for re-establishing accountability on project teams. It is designed to tell the team, in a glance, if they are doing what they said they would do. Teams that use this tool often become very reliable in their performance. But even those that don’t can predict in advance if they are slipping against the goals, rather than announcing at the last minute that they are not going to make it.

The blue line represents the cumulative number of deliverables committed (tasks scheduled to be finished) up through a given workweek. The black bars represent the cumulative number of deliverables actually delivered up through that workweek. In this real example, the team has delivered 48 of 50 scheduled deliverables throughout the first 10 weeks of the project. They have met 96% of their commitments. It would be safe to say that this team will either meet or come very close to meeting their schedule.

To improve the effectiveness of the PAC Chart, I recommend replacing the project Gantt chart with a project deliverables matrix. The deliverables matrix specifies who commits to deliver what to whom and when. It also has a column to verify that the Owner and User’s for each deliverable have discussed quality requirements for that deliverable.

Notice that the deliverables matrix does not track scheduled vs. actual performance. That would be conceding at the beginning that we expect to slip the schedule.

Do not confuse the "commit dates" on the deliverables matrix with task estimates or stretch goals. These are the dates that the owner has committed (promised) to deliver a quality deliverable to the Users. When team members are allowed to make commitments and then agree to hold each other accountable to them, deliverables will be produced on time, or the Owner will provide substantial early warning. This is how we behave when we make promises outside of work, and this is how high performing teams behave with each other.

Esque, Timm J. (1999) No Surprises Project Management: A Proven Early Warning system for Staying on Track. Mill Valley, CA: ACT Publishing.

Gilbert, Thomas F. (1996) Human Competence: Engineering Worthy Performance. Washington D. C. : ISPI and HRD Press.